Life, Death, and Rebirth of a Corporation
July 20, 2013 Leave a comment
In the middle of all the hype and pundit prognostication about the imminent fall of Microsoft, I’m looking at how I can leverage so I can invest more. Like the restructuring of IBM years ago, Microsoft is evolving into another type of firm. The previous business model has been stretched as far as it could go –like IBM’s in the 80’s. IBM was once bashed for missing the Internet Bubble, then idolized for not being there when it popped. IMHO it was neither stupidity or brilliance that created either situation, just the slow bureaucratic nature of a large corporation in the face of rapid change. The nature of business has changed due to the technology that these very corporations brought to the market. And once the genie is out of the bottle its hard to put it back in. Thus these corporations have to deal with the laws of unintended consequences.
That said, IBM, Microsoft, Apple, and now Google are having to deal with consequences to their successes that they didn’t anticipate. This –if history is an example: history repeats itself but not necessarily in the same way-bks” — Microsoft will continue to morph from what was once a scrappy supplier of desktop OS and personal productivity tools, through business infrastructure, now devices and services to eventually some other form. Will it be the biggest player on the block? It doesn’t have to; Apple proved that a short while back. It just has to be one of the smartest.
The big question will be whether the organizational changes have caused an unintended brain drain. The hidden brilliance that lays in various corners of groups and quietly get things done may be leaving as those that know how to play the political game stay on. It will take about two years before the shake-up shows its results. For my money, I’m betting on a phoenix rising, but without any ashes having to happen.